Amharas: Framing, Goal, and Exploiting.
Amharas must be extremely cautious to not be used as pawns again. The bademe war was a major disaster for Ethiopians and particularly Amharas. It was a war waged by two egomaniacal ethno-nationalist cartel groups, Tigray (TPLF) and Tigrayn nationalists (EPLF), which engulfed the two-country costing over 100k lives not to mention resources. For Ethiopians particularly Amharas, it was about patriotism, country, and above all preserving their millennia old sovereignty. For the EPLF & TPLF cartels, it was about personal power, ego, resources and wealth. The current war is waged between Tigray & Oromo nationalists, and it is a competition between implementing Oromo domination agenda (Oromoumma) versus a dying Tigray domination agenda. And as in the Bademe war, Amharas are being used as the main vehicle for an Oromo domination agenda. There are several key questions Amharas need to ask themselves regarding the war and their role, and what directives they can implement to not repeat, the Bademe war.
The first important case to be made is framing the war. How this war is framed is essential as it will check Amharas from being swept up by nationalistic and patriotic emotion; it will aid them to avoid all sorts of unnecessary detrimental sacrifices as Bademe war. As in the Bademe war, Abiy has framed this as an attack on Ethiopia’s sovereignty from a domestic terrorist force. Politically speaking, he is right, but the underhanded agenda is mainly about his own interests. Amhara must unequivocally understand that this is a war between two anti-Amhara forces. It is between Oromo nationalists & Tigray nationalists who have centralized Amhara’s as their primary enemy. It is not about keeping Ethiopia’s sovereignty or integrity, it is about the struggle for domination between two entities, two entities that have abundantly shown how they despise the Amhara people. The TPLF used governmental policies to commit genocide against the Amhara people, and like TPLF, the current Oromo government through its Oromoumma ideology, in this last two years, has patently & abundantly shown us how it approves of disenfranchising & committing genocide on the Amharas people.
Therefore, Amharas must pull back and focus and frame it from an Amhara perspective not an issue of sovereignty. On the surface, they can play into the narrative that it is a fight for sovereignty, but in their hearts, it must be all about the amhara perspective. They must take into consideration the 30 year old TPLF sanctioned terrorism perpetrated on them, and how Abiy plans to repeat that the minute the war is over. Thus, Amharas must conserve their energy and resources in proportion to their goal that should be predicated on purely on Amhara interest. The national military should be taking the leadership role against TPLF not Amhara militia or farmers.
The second important key strategy Amharas must implement with framing is that they need tangible goal. Early on in this war, Amharas have set a goal of bringing back historically Annexed Amhara lands. This is exceedingly a sensible goal, and Amharas should achieve it. However, the achievement must be jus that at least for the immediate short-term, and they should let the military handle the rest. They should concentrate on the initiative in how they can fully take control of the lands, and immediately start resettling Amharas that were ethnic cleansed from their land. They should also make plans to heavily militarize its borders as TPLF attacks will be regular.
Moreover, there needs to be an immediate a high mobilization & concentration on protecting other regions (outside of the Amhara region). These helpless Amharas must be protected from state sponsored and supported genocide OLF is committing. The primary obvious goal should be to provide long-term security, and this can be attained in two ways. One is through arming every Amhara settlement & giving them training, and the other is by physically having Amhara militias present from the Amhara region. Abiy, and regional leaders (including ADP)will vehemently oppose and refuse armed Amharas, but this iniative must be implemented by any means necessary. It is about survival and defending themselves from ongoing genocide. This is a non-negotiable initiative. Heavy investment in their protection is a must.
Lastly, to exploit this war means knowing how to play each group meticulously. By the end of this war, assuming Amhara forces preserve their resources and energy, both the military and TPLF will be weak. Abiy will find it difficult to wield the military as he wants; this means a less threat for Amharas. In the mean time, Amharas should take all efforts to build a larger capacity on all fronts be it militarily, politically, logistically, or organizationally. For instances, Amharas need to amass as much arms as possible be it light or heavy arms. They need to be politically savvy and look for gaps of leverage, and above all Amharas should amass as much support from all spheres and directions from far right nationalist Amharas to the most liberal Amhara identifies as an Ethiopian first. They must build this large capacity.
In sum, Amharas should avoid repeating the Bademe war. Abiy is not an Ethiopianists. He is an Oromo nationalist. He will not at any point cater to Ethiopianism. Amharas need to halt form being emotional and see the realpolitik politics that is currently galvanizing Ethiopian the main-stream politics. Amharas must align their targets. It is incumbent for Amharas to have their own tangible goal, where they can exploit everything to their interests.
